In the latest sign that Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is emerging as the leading Democratic challenger to President Trump in the 2020 election, a new survey has her leading the so-called "blue wall" of states Hillary Clinton lost to Trump.
Warren leads Trump in a Zogby Analytics survey in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. She also leads him in Florida and Ohio.
The new survey, provided to Secrets, shows Trump leading Warren in five other states: Indiana, Kentucky, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.
Warren's edge in the blue wall Midwestern states is significant because those states would have provided Clinton a margin of victory in 2016. But, Zogby notes, the polling is early and similar surveys right before the 2016 election had Clinton winning them.
When it comes to President Donald Trump's approval/disapproval rating in the eleven states we polled, his numbers aren't horrible-he has a 45% approval rating or higher of voters in Florida (45%), Indiana (48%), Kentucky (52%), Missouri (46%), Montana (49%), North Dakota (51%) and Ohio (45%). These numbers are in line with our national polling this month, which had him at a 45% approval rating. But he has issues in important "blue wall states" that helped propel him to victory in 2016; his approval rating with voters in Michigan (38%), Pennsylvania (40%) and Wisconsin (40%) are not great. A Majority of voters polled in Florida (52%), Michigan (57%), Ohio (52%), Pennsylvania (55%), and Wisconsin (57%) disapprove of the president. This fact is pertinent because these were all states Donald Trump won and states that will elect the next president in 2020.
Compounding the issue of Trump's low approval in certain states, is when we tested a hypothetical 2020 presidential election horserace between Democratic hopeful Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump, the senator from Massachusetts beat him in all the "blue wall" states. Warren wins Florida (48% to 39%), Michigan (51% to 35%), Ohio (44% to 40%), Pennsylvania (46% to 38%), Wisconsin (48% to 37%) and Missouri (46% to 40%). It's still very early but these numbers could reflect a combination of frustration with Trump's agenda up to this point, and good marketing on the part of Elizabeth Warren. It must also be noted that Hillary Clinton was easily beating the president in many of these states a few weeks leading up to the 2016 presidential election, and there is an average of 15% of voters in all eleven states who are still undecided. It's a little early to call a winner, but it's still interesting to see where President Trump stacks up against a potential Democratic nominee in 2020
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org