A Senate bill to gut Obamacare would increase the number of uninsured people by 32 million and double premiums on Obamacare's exchanges by 2026, according to an analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
The analysis is of a bill that passed Congress in 2015 that would repeal Obamacare's taxes and some of the mandates. Republicans intend to leave Obamacare in place for two years while a replacement is crafted and implemented.
According to CBO, the number of uninsured people under the repeal only bill would increase by 17 million next year compared to the number under Obamacare and would rise to 27 million more by 2020 when Obamacare's Medicaid expansion would be eliminated as well as tax credits for paying down insurance.
The number of uninsured would then increase to 32 million in 2026
Average premiums would rise by 25 percent next year and 50 percent by 2020.
The CBO also estimated that under the bill about half of the nation's population would not have an insurer on the individual market by 2020 because of "downward pressure on enrollment and upward pressure on premiums."
"That share would continue to increase, extending to about three-quarters of the population by 2026," CBO said.
CBO doesn't take into account any replacement that Republicans would offer in the intervening years.
Repealing Obamacare would reduce deficits by $473 billion from 2017 to 2026.
A January score of the bill, formally known as the Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017, also projected that 32 million more people could be uninsured over a decade if the bill were to become law, 18 million of them in 2018.
The bill would repeal most of Obamacare and delay the implementation for two years. It would undo the employer and individual mandates, Obamacare's taxes, and the expansion of Medicaid to low-income people. It also would cut off family planning funds for a year from facilities that also provide abortions, such as Planned Parenthood, but would not not change Obamacare's regulations on insurers.
The Senate planned to vote on the repeal and delay bill early next week. However, GOP leadership and the White House are in talks to revive a Senate bill that would partially repeal and replace Obamacare. That bill would wind down the Medicaid expansion by 2023, cut some mandates and change the tax credits for paying down insurance.
An earlier score of that Obamacare replacement bill found that 22 million would be uninsured by 2026 compared to Obamacare. GOP leadership has revised the bill to keep some of Obamacare's taxes and added $45 billion to fight the opioid epidemic and $70 billion for a fund to reduce premiums on the individual market.
CBO has not released a score of the new version of the bill, called the Better Care Reconciliation Act.