I don't recommend betting on Supreme Court decisions, but it can be instructive to look at the sentiments of the gamblers. They don't have any special, secret knowledge of how justices will rule, but because they put their money where their opinions are, you can at least count on them to do their level best to guess the outcome without letting personal biases interfere.
BetDSI.EU, which is mostly a sports gambling website, has released the current odds for some of the cases the U.S. Supreme Court will be deciding this term. Here's what the odds say right now:
- The odds are roughly 1 to 1.3 (which is to say, a bet of $130 will win about $100 if it happens) that the justices will reverse the lower court in Christie v. NCAA, opening to door for states that want to legalize sports betting. That signifies a belief — not necessarily the most confident one — that the court will rule that way.
- 1 to 4: That the Supreme Court will reverse a lower court decision that approved warrantless search and seizure of cell phone records.
- 1 to 6: That the lower court ruling in Collins v. Virginia, which allowed the warrantless search of a parked car, will be overturned.
- 1 to 5: That the high court will reverse a ruling in U.S. v. Microsoft that holds that U.S. email providers must hand over email records to the federal government when presented with a search warrant, even if those records are held outside the U.S. and even if it would be against the laws of the country where they are stored.
The odds of these cases going the other way are pretty long, except in the Christie case, where a bet on the high court upholding it fetches even odds.
Meanwhile, the gamblers seem pretty confident that Oprah Winfrey will be a candidate for president — a $400 bet is required to win $100 in the event that she does run.