Local
Will Va. voters break cross-party trend?
By: William C. Flook
Examiner Staff Writer
December 23, 2008
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| Experts say the Virginia GOP is coalescing around Attorney General Bob McDonnell, left, for the governorship. (AP file) |
The commonwealth holds its gubernatorial election a year after the nation elects a president. And the fortunes of each candidate seem to seesaw with his party’s performance in that preceding election.
The trend is part of why some political observers see a better year ahead for the Old Dominion’s battered Republican Party than in 2008. The party in November lost three House and one Senate seat and saw the state cast its electoral votes for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1964.
The Democratic primary fight for the governor’s seat is growing nastier, with two state legislators — Del. Brian Moran of Alexandria and Sen. Creigh Deeds of Bath County — facing the likely entrance of a third candidate: former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe.
“The situation right now seems to me to be somewhat more optimistic for Republicans in 2009 than 2008,” said George Mason University political science professor Stephen Farnsworth. “The Republican Party seems to be coalescing behind a single candidate, [Attorney General] Bob McDonnell, while the Democrats are headed for a very expensive, combative three-way primary.”
Democrats point to mounting gains in state and federal elections in recent years and the shattering of other historical patterns as evidence that next year’s governor’s race will break the 30-year tradition.
“Virginia had a trend since 1964 of electing a Republican president, and we broke that trend this year,” said Moran spokesman Jesse Ferguson.
Democrat Charles Robb entered the governor’s mansion a year after Ronald Reagan moved into the White House. After Bill Clinton won election about a decade later, Virginia voters elected George Allen as governor.
Farnsworth said the trend is due to the off-year election drawing out the most emotionally committed voters — those most enthusiastic or upset about the direction of the country.
Said Republican Del. Chris Saxman, Sen. John McCain’s Virginia co-chairman: “Typically, those who just lost are a little bit angry about it, and they want to come out and support their guy.”
