After GOP gains, congressional Democrats debate how to confront 2010 problems
By: Susan Ferrechio
Chief Congressional Correspondent
November 5, 2009
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| With independents becoming a larger part of the electorate, the news is bad for new incumbent Democrats like Tom Perriello, above, of Virginia, who hail from Republican-leaning districts and won their seats in part by capturing the independent vote in 2008. (AP photo) |
For the most vulnerable congressional Democrats, the results of Tuesday's elections signal that their 2010 re-election prospects may be even tougher than they thought.
Victories by Republicans Bob McDonnell in Virginia and Christopher Christie in New Jersey were accompanied by exit poll results showing independent voters leaned heavily Republican.
With independents becoming a larger part of the electorate, the news is bad for new incumbent Democrats like Tom Perriello of Virginia, who hail from Republican-leaning districts and won their seats in part by capturing the independent vote in 2008.
"I think for that group of moderate Democratic members, and especially members sitting in Republican-leaning districts, this probably does send a big message to them that voters are not all that comfortable with what the Democratic Congress is doing," said Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst for the Cook Political Report.
Exit poll data show that in Virginia, though the results were not a direct repudiation of President Obama, voters are worried about jobs and the economy (46 percent) and are less concerned with health care reform (25 percent), which has consumed Congress in recent months.
Republicans celebrated the victory as a repudiation of Obama and the Democratic agenda, and the start of the GOP comeback.
"The message was sent yesterday," GOP Chairman Michael Steele said. "It's not about the change we need. It's about the change we want."
Democratic congressional moderates acknowledged voters were worried about the economy but downplayed the results as any kind of warning that they should slow down their agenda or change course.
"I don't believe this has much impact on the 2010 races," said Maryland Democrat Frank Kratovil, who is among the most vulnerable freshmen.
Rep. Rick Boucher, D-Va., whose district voted for McDonnell, pointed out that the opposite party has historically won the governor's mansion in his state the year following a presidential election.
"The message was not about the agenda," Boucher insisted.
But he also acknowledged "a concern about the level of federal spending and government involvement."
It is less certain what Tuesday's results will mean for the 32 mostly moderate House Democrats and eight Democratic senators who will have a fight on their hands in next year's election and whether it will hurt efforts by Democratic leaders to get a health care bill passed this year.
In Virginia, for instance, the four districts held by Democratic House members voted for McDonnell, including the one held by Rep. Gerry Connolly, who, like other freshmen, has not made up his mind about the health care bill.
As freshman class president, Connolly lectured his peers the morning after the election that the results made it all the more imperative that the House pass health care reform because so few Democrats turned out to vote.
"Significant Democratic constituencies just didn't turn out," Connolly said he told them. "Democrats are going to have to deliver for their base if they are going to excite their base."
