Harry Jaffe: Bad news poll for Fenty could be good news for D.C.
By: Harry Jaffe
Examiner Columnist
September 30, 2009
More than half of city residents polled by SurveyUSA for WJLA-TV "disapprove" of the way Adrian Fenty is running the city; even more said the young chief executive is out for himself.
My polling mavens said it was a flawed poll. It was done by auto-dial, which cuts down the response rate. Who wants to answer a blind robo-poll? The people who responded might vote, might not. The poll wasn't sorted by ward or by party. It was not what some call a "scientific" poll.
We can quibble with the methods and the timing of the poll; bottom line, it ain't good news for Team Fenty, as it plans to run for a second term a year from now.
Asked about the results Friday, Fenty said: "I just tend not to focus on polls."
Because he's too focused on the next triathlon? Couldn't resist the cheap shot -- which may be on target.
Fact is, Fenty didn't poll voters more than once the last time he ran for mayor. His political squad has already sliced and diced the TV station's poll and digested it for the boss' consumption. And the second time around, I would not be surprised if moneyman John Falcicchio and strategist Tom Lindenfeld run polls, pick over the results block by block, dispatch foot soldiers, direct ads, make sure certain people get out to vote.
The pros know polls can be valuable. This one raises two questions: -- Will it affect Fenty's chances for a second four-year term? No. Anything can happen in life and politics, but if Fenty can avoid revelations about a major corruption rap or personal indiscretion, he's a sure bet for a repeat term.
He has no serious challengers. City Council Chairman Vince Gray is just beginning to sound like a critic of Fenty policies. Vince is a fine legislator, and a Fenty-Gray race would be fun to cover, but Vince doesn't have the stomach for it -- or the cash. Fenty has already scooped most of the dough. For the July 31 report, he recorded $2.5 million in the bank.
-- Does this poll matter? Yes.
It shows Fenty has higher approval ratings among whites than blacks. There's some comfort for Fenty in that fact: Historically, whites vote in D.C. at higher rates than blacks. But the white voters are liberal and can be fickle. If they had a credible alternative who appealed to black Washingtonians, whites would bolt.
The best news for all of us -- rich or poor, white or black or brown -- is the poll says Fenty can no longer take vast parts of the city for granted. He can say he won every precinct last time around, but can he deliver them again? Last time he ran as the fresh-faced reformer; now how many believe he's running for himself.
If Fenty walks the wards again and knocks on all doors, what will people say?
If he doesn't walk, will another?
Now that's something to ponder.
E-mail Harry Jaffe at hjaffe@washingtonexaminer.com.
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