Poll: Only 30 percent say Fenty 'definitely' has their vote
By: Michael Neibauer
Examiner Staff Writer
August 12, 2009
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| D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty might face tough competition among Democrats if he wishes to seek re-election in 2010. (Examiner) |
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More polling data-- Council Chairman Vincent Gray: 48 percent favorable, 11 percent unfavorable
-- Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee: 61 percent favorable, 14 percent unfavorable
-- At-large Councilman Kwame Brown: 40 percent favorable, 9 percent unfavorable
Mayor Adrian Fenty may be vulnerable in his re-election bid next year, with six in 10 Democrats surveyed in a new poll saying they were either open to voting for someone else or strongly opposed to the incumbent.
Conducted by D.C.-based Successful Capital Strategies from July 8-14, the poll targeted only registered Democratic voters in Wards 1, 3, and 6 -- all of which have council members up for re-election next year. The Examiner obtained all 28 pages of polling data.
Fenty entered the 2006 race as an underdog but his tireless campaigning won him every precinct in the all-important Democratic primary.
The new poll, commissioned by the business-backed Nation's Capital Committee for Good Government, implies the incumbent's popularity has waned. Only 30 percent of respondents said they would "definitely" vote for him again, while 13 percent said definitely not, and 46 percent said they would consider someone else.
Roughly half of all respondents said Fenty has performed "as well or better" than expected, but a series of recent scandals may have dented his image -- among them the attempted donation of equipment to the Dominican Republic organized by a fraternity buddy, and the installation of a $75,000 heater in an outdoor pool he uses to train for triathlons. Since the poll, a fender bender in a city-owned sport utility vehicle he was driving has added to the mayor's difficult summer.
His administration, meanwhile, is constantly battling employee unions, bickering with the D.C. Council and struggling with the expensive summer youth jobs programs.
But who will challenge the mayor? A serious opponent has yet to emerge, and Fenty has already amassed a $2.5 million-plus war chest. At-large Councilman Michael Brown is said to be eyeing a run. But Brown, according to the polling data, received only a 30 percent favorable rating.
Fenty's campaign declined comment. But in previous reports about his 2010 run the mayor has returned to his mantra: "Take nothing for granted."
Overall, according to polling data, Fenty received a 68 percent favorable and 25 percent unfavorable rating. He is significantly stronger among whites than blacks. He rates highly, 75 percent, for those who believe education should be the top city priority, but much lower, 53 percent, for those citing affordable housing as most critical.
The Nation's Capital Committee organized last year to support Patrick Mara, the young Republican who crushed long-time Councilwoman Carol Schwartz in the September primary. It is backed by downtown business interests -- developers, office building managers, parking firms and the restaurant industry among them.
The poll of 1,835 respondents split among Wards 1, 3 and 6. A person familiar with the political action committee's strategy said the group intends to expand the poll to the city's other wards.
