Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, citing Sen. Bernie Sanders' surprise victory in Michigan this week after outspending the Democratic front-runner, is warning supporters that it could happen again Tuesday in Ohio, Missouri and Illinois.
"Bernie outraised us by $12 million in February, then outspent us on TV in Michigan," which the Vermont senator won, Robby Mook emailed supporters.
"With the additional money they raised this week, Bernie could outspend us in states like in Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois," he said in an ominous warning.
Mook has reason to be concerned. A new scientific prediction of the race, produced by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, shows Clinton losing Missouri and Ohio by a hair. A Sanders win would be huge news and give him more momentum, though it would remain difficult for him to catch Clinton in delegates.
"Based on the race and region model, we can predict that Hillary Clinton will win three states and Bernie Sanders will win two states on March 15. Clinton is predicted to receive between 65 percent and 67 percent of the vote in North Carolina, between 64 percent and 66 percent of the vote in Florida, between 52 percent and 54 percent of the vote in Illinois, between 46 percent and 48 percent of the vote in Ohio and between 45 percent and 47 percent of the vote in Missouri," said the report from Alan I. Abramowitz, a senior columnist with the Center's Larry Sabato Crystal Ball.
His full note:
Within 24 hours of winning the Michigan primary, Bernie's supporters chipped in $5 million to his campaign. We're going to have to work hard to match that show of support -- can you help right now?
Bernie outraised us by $12 million in February, then outspent us on TV in Michigan. With the additional money they raised this week, Bernie could outspend us in states like in Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois.
Since we lost Michigan, this team has been absolutely AMAZING -- you've really stepped up for Hillary, and we all appreciate it so much. You're providing the momentum we need to bring home big wins on Tuesday, and I know that if we tough it out these next five days, we're all going to be so proud when we watch those results roll in.
Hillary has never needed you more -- and we're counting on 379 more donors in your area to step up today. Help hit our one-million donor goal, and let's go win this nomination:
Hillary for America
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org