The New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver believes that Republicans may have a shot at retaking the Senate.
“A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections,” Silver writes on his “Five Thirty Eight” blog. “Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.”
Silver pointed out that since former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, D-Mont., decided against running for Senate, it is more likely that Republicans would win in that state.
Other likely Republican pickups cited by Silver include West Virginia, with the retirement of Sen. Jay Rockefeller, and South Dakota, with the retirement of Sen. Tim Johnson.
The three toss-up Senate races cited by Silver are North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas.