Health care gives GOP an opportunity with young voters
Examiner Staff Writer
August 17, 2009
Much has been made about the possibility of "pulling the plug on grandma" in the current health care debate. But what of younger Americans, many of whom make up a large portion of America's uninsured? Young voters make up an important piece of Obama's electoral support.
Exit polls last November consistently showed voters 18 to 29 breaking for Obama and Democratic candidates for the House by wide margins. It seemed as though young voters were now the Obama generation.
But polls over the last few months have shown many voters -- including many young voters -- beginning to sour on the Obama administration. A late July Pew "Generation Next" study showed 38 percent of Americans supporting the health care proposals before Congress, with 44 percent opposing.
Obama's job handling of health care fell from a 25-point advantage in April to a one-point deficit in July. In late July as well, Zogby released polling data showing Obama's job approval numbers were slipping not just among voters overall but also among young voters.
With things heading south for the White House, the health care debate has opened a window of opportunity for the GOP with young voters. Young voters are going to bear the long-term costs of any reform program and are already convinced that the status quo is unacceptable.
Another Zogby study in late July found only 18 percent of those 18 to 29 believed Social Security would be there for them, and only 39 percent said Medicare would be around. Though it is challenging to get young voters energized and up-in-arms about entitlement reform, they do agree with what Republicans have said: Major, out-of-control entitlement spending is doomed to fail.
It's also critical to understand the ways in which the current employer-based health care system today is ill-equipped to meet the needs of young people. The aforementioned Pew study also showed that very few believed they would stay with their present employer for much of their working life.
This is a generation that is mobile, transient and more likely to change employers than the last. When every change in employer means a change in health insurance, young Americans become tangled in the outdated system.
All of this assumes they can get a job (and insurance) in the first place. Only 19.7 percent of students graduating from college this year have a job, compared with over 50 percent just two years ago.
The current health care system isn't built for the next generation. The way these voters work clashes with the employer-based model, and they also get that major entitlement programs are not a viable long-term answer.
What this moment calls for is a clear, smart health care alternative plan that moves us away from employer-based care without also putting care even further into the hands of the government. With an unacceptable status quo and a hesitance to embrace the Democratic plan, now is the perfect opportunity for the Republican Party to reach out to young voters on an issue where Democrats for far too long have held an advantage. Doing nothing cannot be an option.
Kristen Soltis is a project manager for the Winston Group, a polling firm in Washington.
