Opinion
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Americans increasingly skeptical of global warming alarmism
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
10/23/09 12:47 PM EDT
In my Wednesday Examiner column, I noted how Americans, historically distinctive in opinions from European elites, have become more so this year even though Barack Obama has opinions closer to those of European elites than any of his predecessors. More evidence of this has just come in from the most recent Pew poll on global warming.
Is there solid evidence that the earth is warming? Agreement among Americans decline from 71% in April 2008 to 57% in October 2009. Is warming caused by human activity? Agreement declined from 47% to 36%. Is it a very serious problem? Agreement declined from 44% to 35%. Agreement that there is solid evidence that the earth is warming declined to 75% among Democrats, 53% among Independents and 35% among Republicans. The decline among Republicans is particularly notable compared to previous Pew polls on this issue: it was 59% in August 2006, 62% in January 2007, 49% in April 2008 and 35% in October 2009.
There are interesting regional differences here. Large majorities believe that there is solid evidence that the earth is warming in the South Atlantic states (66%), the Pacific states (65%) and the Northeast (60%). So does a somewhat smaller majority in the South Central states (54%). Less than a majority do so in the Great Lakes states (49%), the Great Plains states (45%) and the Mountain states (44%). There is some correlation with party identification here, and particularly with voting behavior in the 2008 presidential election: Barack Obama carried (by a very small margin) the South Atlantic states as well as (by much larger margins) the Pacific and Northeast states. But he also carried the Great Lakes states solidly.
To what do I attribute this decline in belief in global warming? One factor may be the weather, not just this year but over the past decade; it has gotten a little cooler, contrary to the predictions of the computer models of global warming alarmists. More important, I think, is that the election of Obama and a Congress with larger Democratic majorities has raised the real-world possibility of legislation that could inflict serious damage on our economy in order to avert a danger predicted by global warming alarmists’ computer models for the far distant future. It's one thing to accept a line peddled by most of mainstream media when it's not likely to cost you anything. It's another thing when it looks like it might cost something. The prospect of hanging, as Dr. Johnson said, tends to concentrate the mind.
In any case, Pew’s results are consistent with the other poll numbers I cited in my column. All of which make it less likely, I think, that this Congress will produce the kind of carbon emissions legislation the Obama administration says it wants.
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