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Don't buy those carbon credits just yet

By: David Freddoso
Commentary Staff Writer
11/10/09 8:15 AM EST

Democrats' cap-and-trade climate change bill contains a provision that could suddenly render useless the carbon credits it creates, says Sen. David Vitter, R-La.

Vitter will speak at a press conference later today on how the bill establishes emergency conditions requiring the president to step in and use all of his authority over relevant agencies to stop global warming. According to the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, which performs climate modeling analyses for the Department of Energy, the emergency conditions laid out in the bill would be triggered within months of its enactment.

The cap-and-trade bill -- both the Senate version that passed the Environment and Public Works committee and the version that already passed the House -- effectively declares a climate emergency if world greenhouse gas levels climb above 450 parts per million. (The number appears to have been chosen arbitrarily.) According to the Pacific Northwest National lab, which wrote in response to Vitter's inquiries, the world's air will hit that level of greenhouse gases next year, in 2010, if undeveloped nations do not accept carbon limits.

The result is a a scenario in which the law not only permits but in fact requires the president to “direct all Federal agencies to use existing statutory authority to take appropriate actions...to address shortfalls" in emissions cutbacks.

The bill's language places an unusually broad mandate upon the president to act in the event of this "emergency" situation." In a letter to Vitter, EPA administration Lisa Jackson wrote that she does not know what her agency would do. “It is premature to describe exactly what additional actions EPA may take until such an analysis is conducted," she wrote.

But declaration of this "climate emergency" could result in federal agencies denying all discretionary permits for carbon-emitting industries, and EPA itself could impose non-attainment status upon the entire United States. "In that context, the carbon credits won't matter," Vitter told me yesterday.

If a future president tries to go easy on industry, environmental groups are sure to litigate based on the clear language in the law, forcing his hand. 

"This provision was not focused on to any significant extent during the House debate," said Vitter. The climate change bill passed the House this summer, hours after hundreds of pages of amendments were added to it. Vitter said he plans to write industry leaders who are supporting the climate bill to ask whether they understand what the bill's language would do.




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Reader Comments

All comments on this page are subject to our Terms of Use and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Examiner or its staff. Comment box is limited to 250 words.

Gerhard Kramm

Nov 10, 2009

I must assume that the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory included that water vapor (H_2O) concentration. If not, it is sheer scientific nonsense to state that the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration will hit the level of 450 ppmV in 2010, if undeveloped nations do not accept carbon limits. Based on the Mauna Loa observations (see, e.g.,
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ), the carbon dioxide (CO_2) concentration will hit the 450 ppmV level in 26 years (2036) or so.

As shown by Kramm et al. (2008) the mean atmospheric concentration will increase as long as the total (natural plus anthropogenic) emission of greenhouse gases is larger than their total uptake, for instance, by vegetation and the oceans. Stopping the anthropogenic emission of CO_2 does not mean that the CO_2 concentration will decrease.

 

Barry Brill

Nov 10, 2009

Kramm confines his calculation to CO2, whilst the Bill refers to total GHGs - expressed in CO2 equivalents.

He does not explain the point in cutting anthropogenic emissions, if atmospheric concentration is set to increase in any event.

 

RHO1953

Nov 10, 2009

We will be living in a dictatorship within a year if something really big doesn't happen to save us.

 

Nov 10, 2009

"We will be living in a dictatorship within a year if something really big doesn't happen to save us."

...You mean if citizens don't get their heads outa where the sun never shines and start SPEAKING UP.

 

MattN

Nov 11, 2009

Brill, "other greenhouse gasses" such as methane, are measure in parts per BILLION. Excluding water vapor, CO2 is the vast majority of GHGs, and getting to 450 parts per MILLION will take a whole lot longer than 1 more year. We're currently at 388ppm, and go up ~2-3ppm/year.

 

Barry Brill

Nov 11, 2009

With respect, MattN, the IPCC "threshold" of 450ppm (which will supposedly cause a 2C temperature increase) incorporates ALL GHGs at their CO2 PPM equivalence.

The PNN Laboratory says that global concentration will be reached within a year - triggering an internal US "martial Law to fight US emissions". As the threshold will probably be blown in China or elsewhere, it is not immediately clear why the US should be the place where martial law is declared

 

MattN

Nov 11, 2009

That is so absurd, it shouldn't even warrant a response.

 

Gerhard Kramm

Nov 13, 2009

Dear Barry Brill,

I must assume that the "CO2 equivalents" are related to the so-called "Global Warming Potential" (GWP). Please tell me and the other readers on which physical law the GWP is based. Please tell as the GWP of water vapor.

 


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