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GOP: Dems are bluffing, don't have the votes
By: Byron York
Chief Political Correspondent
03/19/10 6:01 PM EDT
House GOP whip Rep. Eric Cantor has sent out a brief memo outlining the health care vote count from the Republican perspective. The best way to look at it is not to ask whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi has gotten the 216 votes needed to pass the Democrats' national health care bill, but whether opponents have the votes to defeat it.
Start with all 178 GOP lawmakers. (There have been rumors that Rep. Joseph Cao, who was the only Republican to vote for the health bill the first time, is wavering, but Cantor says Cao is a firm no.) Beginning the count with 178 Republicans means that opponents need 38 Democrats to vote against the bill for it to be defeated. This is how Cantor breaks it down:
Thirty-seven Democrats voted against the health care bill last November. Of those, five have publicly switched their votes to yes. That leaves 32. In addition, some others might change their votes to yes as well, and Cantor names six: Baird, Kosmas, McMahon, Murphy, Tanner, and Teague.
But if there are in fact 32 original Democratic no votes that are still no votes, then Republicans need to find six other Democrats to vote no in order to defeat the bill. Cantor points to one original yes vote that has switched to no -- Arcuri -- and suggests there might be five others who could switch: Berry, Costa, Giffords, Lynch, and Space.
That leaves the much-discussed Stupak Group. The pro-life Democrat originally said he had 12 colleagues who originally voted yes but would now vote no. Stupak has lost some of those, but it is not clear how many.
Cantor suggests that in combining those two categories -- the yeses who have become no plus the Stupak group -- there might be another 12 votes against the bill. "If we add 12 to 32, we get 44 -- which leaves Speaker Pelosi seven votes short," Cantor concludes. Of course, if there are less than 32 original no votes who remain no votes, the margin is tighter.
Who is correct? It's clear the Democrats are working around the clock to create a sense of momentum and inevitability about the vote. But the fact is, there are still enough unknowns to say the outcome is entirely in doubt.
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