Opinion
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Jeb Bush for senator
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
08/07/09 3:49 PM EDT
Now that Florida Senator Mel Martinez is resigning, Governor Charlie Crist must appoint a senator to serve out the rest of his term. Martinez had already announced that he would not run for reelection in 2010, and Crist has announced that he will run for the seat instead of seeking a second term as governor. Another Republican, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, is also running for the seat, despite calls to leave the race when the much better known and widely popular Crist got in.
Here are a couple of suggestions for Governor Crist.
Number one. Appoint Florida’s best known Republican, your predecessor as governor, Jeb Bush, to serve out the rest of Martinez’s term. Bush was in my opinion the best state governor of the last decade, with a hugely successful record as a thoughtful and determined innovator. He could bring to the Senate the perspective of a seasoned governor and an innovative reformer. True, he has shown no interest in holding public office any time soon and is reportedly involved in repairing his family finances. It might be a considerable sacrifice for him to serve. But that also means that there’s zero chance he will run for the seat in 2010 (he could have won it easily in 2004 when he was in the middle of his second term as governor). The rumor mill has it that you will appoint former Governor Bob Martinez, who was elected in 1986 and defeated for reelection in 1990. Martinez (no relation to the incumbent) would be an acceptable interim senator. Jeb Bush would be an outstanding one.
Number two. If Bush refuses an offer, reconsider your plans to run for the Senate and run for reelection as governor instead. Leave the Senate race to Marco Rubio or anyone else who might run (including Attorney General Bill McCollum, who is now running for governor). Or appoint Rubio to the seat, despite your differences with him on issues, to give him a leg up in 2010. Successful governors typically serve for two terms, and your whole career has been in state politics; your interesting issue priorities and issue positions have been geared to state government issues and have been widely popular among Democrats and Independents as much as Republicans. Your support of the February 2009 stimulus package, justifiable as bringing in revenue to Tallahassee, would probably be an asset in a reelection race; it could be a liability in a Senate primary against Marco Rubio. Your Senate candidacy has been endorsed by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn, as you seem like a sure winner in a general election and one who will not need major funding in a huge and expensive state. But you would be an even surer winner in a race for governor (because you wouldn’t have a serious primary opponent like Rubio) and your reelection would insure that a Democratic governor couldn’t veto a Republican congressional redistricting plan. The current Republican plan enables Republicans to hold, even after a couple of 2008 defeats, a 15-10 edge in the state’s 25-member U.S. House delegation (it was 18-7 after the 2002 and 2004 elections); only California and Texas elected more Republican congressmen. Florida is likely to gain two seats from the reapportionment following the 2010 Census. Assuming, as is likely, that Republicans maintain their majorities in the legislature, the difference between a Republican governor and a Democratic governor could make the difference between an 18-9 Republican delegation and a 15-12 Democratic delegation. Republicans will have a very hard time retaining a majority in the House in the latter case.
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