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Projections from the House's 'deem to pass' roll call
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
03/18/10 5:21 PM EDT
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| House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaks at a news conference about health care on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, March 2, 2010.(AP Photo/Harry Hamburg) |
The House voted this afternoon by a 222-203 margin to pass the “Slaughter solution” rule authorizing a single vote on the Senate health care bill which the House leadership wants to send to the president for signature plus the reconciliation health measure the House leadership wants to send to the Senate.
This victory for the Democratic leadership makes it appear that they are on the verge of rounding up the required 216 vote-majority (of the current 431 House members, 253 Democrats and 178 Republicans). But the House leadership, of either party, almost always wins rule votes.
An analysis of the votes cast for and against the rule, together with an examination of members’ public statements and political situations, suggests that the House leadership is still significantly short of 216 votes on final passage, and that opponents of the view have a reservoir of potential noes from more than the 38 Democrats needed to defeat the measure.
Here’s my analysis:
Democrats voted for the rule by a 222-28 margin; all 175 Republicans were opposed. Six members, three Democrats and three Republicans, did not vote; each can be counted on to support his or her party on a final vote.
Of the 28 Democrats voting no, 16 voted against the House health care bill last November: Bright (AL 2), Davis (AL 7), Kosmas (FL 24), Minnick (ID 1), Melancon (LA 3), Kratovil (MD 1), Childers (MS 1), Taylor (MS 4), Adler (NJ 3), Teague (NM 2), McIntyre (NC 7), Shuler (NC 11), Boren (OK 2), Holden (PA 17), Herseth Sandlin (SD 1), Nye (VA 2).
To judge from The Hill’s whip count, almost all of these 16 look like solid noes on the bill, with only Kosmas in doubt. Defying the leadership on a vote on a rule is a pretty clear indication of opposition on the merits. And it’s going to take a lot of persuading to get a member who has cast two safe-harbor no votes to switch, under the glare of publicity, to yes.
Of the 28 Democrats voting no on the rule, 12 voted for the House bill in November, when it passed 220-215. Of these, 5 have made public statements (or have staffers who have made public statements) saying they’ll switch from yes to no: Lipinski (IL 3), Costello (IL 12), Stupak (MI 1), Arcuri (NY 24), Carney (PA 10). In addition, Dahlkemper (PA 3) has made statements suggesting that she will oppose the Senate bill because of its abortion language. The other 6 who voted yes in November and no on the rule surprised me: Mitchell (AZ 5), Giffords (AZ 8), McNerney (CA 11), Michaud (ME 2), Cooper (TN 5), Perriello (VA 5).
All but Cooper and Michaud face serious election challenges; their no votes may have been cast to give them political cover against yes votes on the final vote, or they may be a sign that they’re ready to switch. Michaud tends to be liberal on economic issues and moderate on cultural issues; perhaps he is troubled by the abortion issue.
Cooper has been a critic of the Democratic leadership, and his willingness to vote against the leadership on the rule does not come as a complete surprise, and he has some expertise in health care policy. He has a safe Democratic (56% Obama 2008) district, but might be vulnerable to a primary challenge; I note that the filing deadline for federal candidates in Tennessee is April 1.
Of the 222 Democrats who voted for the rule, 18 appear on The Hill’s whip count as firm, likely, or leaning no on the Senate health care bill. Of those 18, 13 voted no on the House bill in November: Ross (AR 4), Boyd (FL 2), Marshall (GA 8), Barrow (GA 12), Chandler (KY 6), Peterson (MN 7), Skelton (MO 4), McMahon (NY 13), Kissell (NC 8), Davis (TN 4), Edwards (TX 17), Matheson (UT 2), Boucher (VA 9).
Two are committee chairmen (Peterson, Skelton) and two are important subcommittee chairmen (Edwards, Boucher) who are presumably unwilling to buck the leadership on a rule vote. All but 3 are from southern-accented districts; every one is from a district that voted for John McCain. Most are listed as no votes on The Hill’s whip count.
In addition, 5 Democrats who voted yes in November and yes on the rule still show up as at least leaning no on final passage in The Hill’s whip count: Berry (AR 1), Donnelly (IN 2), Driehaus (OH 1), Gutierrez (IL 4), Lynch (MA 9). Gutierrez has said he’ll vote no because of immigration issues; I don’t believe that for a minute.
Donnelly and Driehaus are said to be leaning no because of the abortion issue. Berry since he announced his decision to retire has been grumbling about the unpopularity of the president’s program; perhaps he feels he is a victim of Obamacare. Lynch’s announcement that he would vote no on the Senate bill was a surprise; he’s from a district that is a lineal descendant of the districts represented by Rules Committee Chairman Joe Moakley and Speaker John McCormack.
But it now stretches far from his base in South Boston to the suburbs, and it voted about 55% for Scott Brown in January. Still, Lynch’s pronouncement that the “deem to pass” procedure was “disingenuous did not prevent him from voting for it, and perhaps his statement that he’d vote against the final bill should be taken with skepticism.
Other possible no votes can be culled from those listed in The Hill’s whip count as undecided include: Altmire (PA 4), who voted no in November and has been denouncing both “deem and pass” and the bill on every cable outlet, but voted for “deem and pass” today.
Baird (WA 3), who voted no in November and later announced he was retiring from Congress. Boccieri (OH 16), who voted no in November and declined to appear with Barack Obama on Monday in northern Ohio near his district. Ellsworth (IN 8), who voted yes in November and is running for the Senate. Markey (CO 4), whose late-in-the-roll-call no vote in November suggests she knows voting yes could defeat her but who is responsive to the Democratic leadership. Tanner (TN 8), who voted no in November and late announced he was retiring from Congress.
I will leave it to readers to add up their own totals and to make any additions to the list they want. They should understand that I’m approaching this from the outside. The Democratic leadership has lots more information than I do, and perhaps more commitments, solid or hedged, than appear in the public record.
But we’re still seeing only one November no vote switched publicly to yes—that of Dennis Kucinich, one of two Democrats who opposed the House bill from the left (with the other, Eric Massa, no longer in the House). We’ve seen more November yes votes switching publicly to no. Lynch is one I wouldn’t have predicted. This looks like the toughest challenge the House leadership has faced since Nancy Pelosi was elected Speaker in January 2007.
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