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Republican resurgence in 2010?
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
11/11/09 10:40 AM EST
The latest numbers on the generic ballot—which party’s candidate for Congress—should strike some terror into the hearts of Democratic incumbents. Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that Republicans are leading Democrats this week by a six-point margin, 43% to 37%. Independents, those not identifying with either party, back Republicans 43%-20%. Rasmussen employs a tight likely voter screen, too tight in the view of some Democratic analysts, and in his weekly reports has shown Republicans ahead in the generic vote by varying margins since the last week in June—just about the time the House passed the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill by a 219-212 margin. This result comes just after the House passed Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s health care bill by a 220-215 margin. Democrats cast 213 votes for cap-and-trade and 219 votes for the health care bill.
Those Democrats who may be inclined to dismiss Rasmussen’s results should take a look at Gallup’s most recent report, which shows Republicans leading 48%-44% on the generic vote question. Gallup finds Republicans leading among Independents by a 52%-30% margin—a collapse of Democratic support among Independents similar to that shown in Rasmussen’s results. Gallup does not use a likely voter screen—it refrains from doing so until the months immediately preceding the election—and so this is a survey of people who say they are registered voters. Gallup analyst Jeffrey M. Jones points out that since Gallup began asking the generic vote question, in 1950, Republicans have seldom been ahead. “Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002,” strong years for the Republicans. In those years Republicans won about 230 House seats, 53 more than they hold today. Democrats gained a total of 54 House seats in the 2006 and 2008 election, a very impressive total. These numbers suggest they could lose an equivalent number in 2010 alone.
As Rasmussen and Gallup correctly point out, opinion may change over the 11½ months until the November 2010 election, and voter turnout—which clearly favored Republicans in November 2009, as I have noted—may not do so next year. Even so, these numbers are very bad news for congressional Democrats.
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