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Republicans could make electoral history in New York
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
11/20/09 11:28 AM EST
The New York Daily News is reporting that Rudy Giuliani is “very likely” going to run against appointed incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand for the remaining two years of Hillary Clinton’s Senate term in 2010. A new poll from Marist shows Giuliani leading Gillibrand 54%-38%--he’s even carrying New York City by a statistically insignificant 48%-45%--and in the five polls taken in September, October and November he’s leading by an average of 51%-39%. In addition, pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that Gillibrand leads former Governor George Pataki by only a 45%-42% margin. In the four polls taken since August on this pairing, Pataki leads Gillbrand by an average and microscopic 43%-42% margin.
A Giuliani or Pataki defeat of Gillibrand would make electoral history. Since direct election of senators came in, no incumbent Democratic senator from New York has been defeated for reelection. Royal Copeland, first elected in 1922, died in office in 1938. Robert Wagner, first elected in 1926, resigned in 1949 because of ill health. James Mead, chosen in a special election to replace Copeland, was reelected in 1940 and ran for governor, unsuccessfully, in 1946. Herbert Lehman, elected in a 1949 special election to replace Wagner, was reelected in 1950 and did not run for reelection in 1956. Robert Kennedy, elected in 1964, was murdered by a Palestinian terrorist in 1968. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, first elected in 1976, did not run for reelection in 2000. Charles Schumer, first elected in 1998, is still serving. Hillary Clinton, elected in 2000 and reelected in 2006, resigned in 2009 to become secretary of state.
In contrast, seven of the eight Republican senators from New York since direct election of senators came in have been, sooner or later, defeated for reelection. William Calder, elected in 1916, was defeated 53%-41% by Copeland. James Wadsworth, elected in 1914 (the same year in which the loser in the Democratic primary was the 34-year-old Assistant Secretary of the Navy Franklin Roosevelt) and reelected in 1920, was defeated 46%-42% by Wagner in 1926. Irving Ives, elected in 1946 and 1952, did not run for reelection in 1958. John Foster Dulles, appointed in July 1949 by Governor Thomas Dewey to fill Wagner’s seat, was defeated 52%-48% by Lehman in November 1949. (I bet you didn’t know that metro Washington’s international airport was named for a New York senator, did you? Well, of course he was also secretary of state.) Jacob Javits, elected in 1956 and reelected three times, was defeated in the Republican primary by Alfonse d’Amato in 1980; running on the Liberal line, Javits received 11% of the vote that year, while d’Amato was elected over Democrat Elizabeth Holtzman by a 45%-44% margin. Charles Goodell, appointed by Governor Nelson Rockefeller to fill Kennedy’s seat, won 24% of the vote in a three-way race in 1970, running behind Conservative nominee James Buckley’s 39% and Democratic nominee Richard Ottinger’s 37%. Buckley, running this time on the Republican and Conservative lines, was defeated 54%-45% by Moynihan in 1976. Alfonse d’Amato, elected in 1980 and reelected in 1986 and 1992, was defeated 55%-44% by Charles Schumer in 1998.
Republicans have held the governorship of New York for almost half the time—46 years—since direct election of senators there began in 1914. But they’ve had a hard time holding on to Senate seats, while Democrats have always been reelected when they’ve run for another term. That precedent would be broken if Gillibrand is defeated. On the other hand, a Gillbrand defeat would be in line with another New York senatorial precedent: the two senators who took their seats by gubernatorial appointment, Dulles and Goodell, were both defeated at the next election.
The fact that a Democratic Senate seat in New York is potentially in jeopardy, at least if a well-known candidate like Giuliani or Pataki is the Republican nominee, is an interesting data point and an indication of the Democratic party’s current troubles—and the Republican party’s current opportunities. The last time an incumbent Democratic senator seemed to have a serious challenge was in 1950, when Herbert Lehman beat Joe Hanley 50%-45%. That was two years before Robert Byrd, who this week became the longest-serving member of Congress in history, was first elected to the House, in 1952.
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