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The Republicans' odds for tomorrow
By: David Freddoso
Commentary Staff Writer
11/02/09 6:01 PM EST
The GOP is counting on a few wins tomorrow after four years of losing. And futures market traders seem to favor them.
At the Intrade futures market, they sell contracts that depend on election outcomes. If a candidate wins, his contract pays $100. If he loses, it becomes worthless. In the weeks leading up to an election, contracts are bought and sold between market participants, and the going price offers an indication of how the market views the race. In 2004, Intrade participants correctly predicted every state's presidential outcome. In 2008, they predicted them all correctly except for Indiana, which they gave to McCain, and Missouri, which finished as a coin-toss.
Based on traders' activities, Bob McDonnell is a lock for governor of Virginia -- his contract sells for $97. Doug Hoffman is a favorite in New York-23, selling at $72. Chris Christie is very narrowly favored to win for governor of New Jersey, with Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's contract selling at $48.
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