Fred Barnes: Virginia turns back to red

Creigh Deeds, the Democratic candidate for governor of Virginia, has a Barack Obama problem. Obama won Virginia in last year's presidential race -- the first Democrat to do so in 44 years -- but his popularity in the state has plunged since then.

Deeds is conflicted. Asked if he was an "Obama Democrat," Deeds said he was a "Creigh Deeds Democrat," whatever that is. And he's skipped two of three Obama appearances in Virginia during the campaign season.

His campaign is sputtering, he trails Republican Bob McDonnell by 7 points or more in every poll, and the Democratic base is demoralized. He needs Obama's help in creating a Democratic surge in turnout Nov. 3.

The downside is Obama motivates Republicans as well and is likely to have little effect on independents. In 2006 and 2008 -- disastrous election years for Republicans in Virginia -- the independents had turned sharply against President George W. Bush and the war in Iraq, says former Republican Rep. Tom Davis.

With Bush gone, independents are increasingly leery of Obama. For Deeds, the president is a "net negative," Davis says.

With his moderate-to-liberal record, Deeds seemed well-positioned to unite Democrats, attract independents and win the governorship. Republicans, who'd expected former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe to be the nominee, were rattled. Deeds led McDonnell in two polls.

It's been downhill from there. Democrats would have you believe the blame rested with Deeds and his inept campaign. In contrast, McDonnell, who defeated Deeds for attorney general by 323 votes in 2005, has run a crisp, disciplined, inclusive campaign from the start.

McDonnell overcame one big obstacle. In late August, The Washington Post, chronically hostile to Virginia Republicans, uncovered his socially conservative 1989 master's thesis. Deeds made it the centerpiece of his campaign, airing TV ads on it for weeks.

McDonnell repudiated parts of the thesis, insisted he supported women in the workplace and moved on. He took a hit in the polls but never fell behind.

Then, during a debate, Deeds said he would not raise taxes. Afterward, he told reporters he was only referring to "general revenue" taxes.

His evasiveness infuriated the Post, which had backed Deeds in the primary on the sole issue of his willingness to increase taxes to finance road building. The paper's endorsement was crucial in his come-from-behind victory.

Three days later, a Post editorial slammed Deeds for "trying to fudge the issue." He responded by unveiling "my transportation plan," which the Post published. (At the debate, McDonnell had held up a blank piece of paper, calling it the Deeds plan.) In the op-ed, Deeds said he would "sign a bipartisan bill with a dedicated funding mechanism for transportation -- even if it includes new taxes."

Last week, the paper finally endorsed Deeds. It conceded Deeds lacked good candidate skills, but said, "There are plenty of reasons why [he] is the better choice," particularly taxes.

Does an off-year governor's race really matter in the national scheme of things? Absolutely. In Virginia, with its one-term rule, there's no incumbent. It's one party against the other.

To the dismay of Deeds, McDonnell has injected Obama and his liberal agenda into the race. Further tying Deeds to Washington is Obama's pick for Democratic national chairman, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine.

At a minimum, the Virginia election will be clear evidence of what a state that voted for Obama in 2008 thinks of him now. Deeds has embraced Obama in the final days of the campaign, including running an ad in which Obama lauds him and joining the president at a final campaign appearance.

If Obama gives Deeds a significant boost, so much the better for Obama and Democrats. But if the drift to McDonnell continues, we'll know what Virginia voters are saying about the president.