Hugh Hewitt: Will the Tea Party Patriots help reverse the vote?

Sen. Ben Nelson's, D-Neb., abandonment of his alleged "pro-life" commitment brought Harry Reid within reach of a Christmas Eve vote to approve a Senate version of Obamacare. When that happens, the political battles over the future of American medicine and especially the care of seniors will shift to the conference committee and then to the House.

Though many conservatives are demoralized, they should instead be gearing up to peel off enough votes from among the 220 who voted for Obamacare when it passed the lower chamber. If the 215 who voted "no" on the first round stay firm, only three Democrats need to be turned.

Those three are most likely going to be found among the 24 Democrats identified by the National Republican Congressional Committee's Reverse the Vote campaign. (See reversethevote.org/dems.html) These are the two dozen Democrats judged most vulnerable on Nov. 2, 2010, because the beliefs of the voters in their districts do not square with their representatives' support for the federal government's takeover of health care. Thousands of small contributions have already flowed into a special fund to be divided among the eventual GOP nominees against these 24 constituent-ignoring liberals.

Even more money is needed of course, but much more than money as well, and that is where the Tea Party movement comes in.

First, though, what do we mean by "Tea Party movement?" The media don't seem to recognize the fact that there are many groups that wear the Tea Party mantle. Some are completely legitimate grass-roots organizations, like Tea Party Patriots (teapartypatriots.org). Others are also completely legit. Still others are consultant-driven not-for-profits in name and tax status only, and they are actually just using the populist anger in the country to line their pockets.

What matters now is that the genuine grass-roots activists join in the effort to peel off at least three House Democrats from their original support for Obamacare. The Tea Party turnout has considerable overlap with the GOP, but they are very distinct efforts in many respects. Almost every member of both opposes the takeover of health care by the feds, and most are also opposed to the massive cuts in store for Medicare.

While the GOP busies itself raising money for the fall races, the Tea Party activists could be focusing on organizing efforts on a district-by-district basis. Imagine the impact over the next few weeks if the cash continued to flow into Reverse the Vote even as committees of Tea Party veterans presented themselves and their grievances in the local offices of these 24 Democrats.

Tea Party participants from districts with congressmen who have been opposing Obamacare and massive spending could become virtual members of one of the 24 efforts to turn a Democrat from a "yes" to a "no." The surge in opposition, if focused, could be very effective.

The GOP and the Tea Parties are not the same thing. But they want many of the same things, especially the defeat of Obamacare.

The time is now for the latter to target the same out-of-touch-with-their-district Democrats as the former. Such an alliance, even if only for a while, could save American medicine.

Some of the Tea Party participants will want to grouse about what the Republicans did -- or didn't do -- when they were in the majority before 2007. Some will worry about being co-opted or about losing their influence or position within the media spotlight as 2010 begins to shift to the elections, which inevitably highlight the two parties. Still others will be dreaming "third party" dreams and won't want anything to do with the Party of Lincoln.

A test of the movement is directly ahead. To defeat Obamacare, it is going to have to team up with the GOP. The next few weeks will tell us a lot about the motives, and staying power, of the new activists of 2009.

Examiner Columnist Hugh Hewitt is a law professor at Chapman University Law School and a nationally syndicated radio talk show host who blogs daily at HughHewitt.com.