Reid's political box keeps shrinking on health care

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is caught between a divided Democratic caucus and swing voters in his home state of Nevada as he tries to balance the health care reform fight with his bid for a fifth term.

So far, his political juggling act is not going well. Pollsters have moved Reid's Senate seat to the "toss up" column as he fends off attacks from the left and right.

And political observers agree that if Reid is unable resolve the intraparty difference over the bill and shepherd through some kind of reform, his re-election prospects will likely be doomed.

"At this point, it's about delivering," said political consultant Dan Gerstein, who helped Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut get re-elected as an independent in 2006 after losing the Democratic primary.

Stu Rothenberg, publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, said the 2010 election "looks to be a referendum on both Obama and Senator Reid."

Rothenberg downgraded Reid's Senate seat from the Narrow Advantage category in part because of consecutive polls showing the incumbent losing on the general election ballot to either of two potential Republican challengers, former state GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden and onetime basketball star and real-estate developer Danny Tarkanian.

In the most recent survey by Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review Journal, 50 percent of likely voters rated Reid unfavorably, compared with 15 percent for Lowden and 11 percent for Tarkanian.

While Reid's charmless demeanor and tendency to put his foot in his mouth have hurt him, the health care debate has sunk Reid to new levels of unpopularity.

"Things have changed over the last six months," Rothenberg said. "There was a time when the notion of Democrats addressing health care reform was a big plus for the party but as we talk more about the details, there has been more concern and more doubt and the discussion of health care reform has hurt the president. Reid's growing weakness is a function of how the health care debate has turned."

Reid this week is attempting to merge two Senate health care proposals that have caused a schism in the Democratic caucus with some supporting the more liberal bill, which includes a provision to create a public health insurance option, and others backing a moderate proposal calling for a privately run cooperative. Reid needs all 58 Democrats and two independents to agree on one bill in order to achieve a filibuster-proof majority.

As Reid works, a liberal group, the Progressive Change Coalition, is hammering him with new ads in Nevada asking if Reid is "strong enough" to deliver a public option. If he delivers one, he can expect to be hit just as hard from the right.

But Reid has already made moves to protect Nevada, including a deal he cut with the sponsor of the moderate bill, Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., to ensure that his state will not pay the same increases in Medicaid as other states for five years.

sferrechio@washingtonexaminer.com