Retirements stoke Democrats' fears about 2010
By: Susan Ferrechio
Chief Congressional Correspondent
December 15, 2009
If history is any indicator, the growing list of retiring Democratic lawmakers could lead to a thrashing at the polls for the party next year.
Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., announced he will not seek a 14th term, becoming the fourth House Democratic lawmaker in recent weeks to jump ship without having plans to run for higher office.
Gordon's departure, which Republicans say was preceded by dire poll numbers, has led some political analysts to predict trouble in November 2010 for the Democratic Party. The Cook Political Report immediately moved Gordon's seat into their "likely Republican" column. Cook's House race editor, Dave Wasserman, wrote that Gordon's announcement brings the number of vulnerable open Democratic seats to seven and if the number "balloons past 15, House Republicans will have a real opportunity to hit this midterm election out of the park."
Reps. Dennis Moore, D-Kan., John Tanner, D-Tenn., and Brian Baird, D-Wash. are also retiring. All four lawmakers hail from swing districts and faced tough re-election bids. Pollsters expect the list to keep growing as more Democratic incumbents face the prospect of difficult races and the early 2010 filing deadline for candidates draws near. Other Democrats from potential swing districts, like Rep. Neil Abercrombie, of Hawaii, and Rep. Charlie Melancon, of Louisiana, are giving up their seats to run for higher offices.
Democratic strategists downplay the retirements and say the party will be able to stave off a big defeat next November.
But Republicans see signs of 1994, when they were able to wrest control of the House for the first time in 40 years.
"What set us up for the big victory in 1994 was the high number of retirements in more Republican-type seats," Republican pollster Ed Goaes said. "This smells and much the same way."
In the months leading up to the 1994 election, Democrats left 28 seats open and Republicans won 22 of them, picking up a total of 54 new seats.
"That will not happen in this cycle," Ryan Rudominer, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said.
Rudominer said the Republican "brand" was much stronger in 1994 than today and said the GOP is riddled with party infighting. Rudominer said Democrats are also in a stronger position than 1994 because there is a better geographic distribution of Democratic seats, which leaves them less dependent on victory in one region.
Bolstering Rudominer's argument is the fact that few people believe Republicans will be vying for more than two dozen open Democratic seats. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., who chairs the DCCC, has hinted additional Democrats may retire, but nobody anticipates the current number to more than double.
The 2010 election outlook appears more like it did in 2005, a year before the Democratic takeover of Congress, but in reverse.
Exactly four years ago, in December 2005, just as the 2006 election cycle was about to kick into full gear, five Republicans had announced their retirement.
Less than a year later, Democrats picked up 31 seats.
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