Senate civil wars heating up
By: Chris Stirewalt
Political Editor
November 27, 2009
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| (AP file photo) |
With a rapidly changing political atmosphere, the 36 Senate seats up for election in 2010 are drawing a big field of office seekers. But before Republicans can try their luck after eight years of Democratic gains, both parties have to settle their own internal struggles.
A look at three key primaries:
Florida Republican primary
Aug. 24, 2010
The combatants
Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio is a conservative darling and the face of a possible new generation of Republicans. He's 38, the son of Cuban immigrants and a strong retail politician. His campaign to take the seat formerly held by Republican Sen. Mel Martinez has generated national excitement on the right.
On the other side of this matchup is 57-year-old Gov. Charlie Crist -- an old-school Republican whose rush to the middle after Barack Obama won the presidency -- and Florida's 27 electoral votes -- is now causing him heartburn. Crist's support for Obama's now-controversial $787 billion stimulus package, Florida's worsening economy, and the governor's appointment of a former aide to hold the seat after Martinez's retirement have all proven to be liabilities.
The battlefield
The Crist-Rubio race will be a proxy battle between the Republican establishment and the tea-party insurgency. The Senate campaign wing of the national party is backing Crist and conservative, libertarian groups like the Club for Growth are backing Rubio.
The winner of the Republican primary is likely to face Rep. Kendrick Meek from North Miami, a Democrat who has never had a general-election opponent in his four runs for the seat held by his mother for five terms.
The intelligence
In the Examiner Electoral Average, Crist leads Rubio among Florida Republicans 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided. But at the end of June, Crist led 52 percent to 23 percent. Crist may hold on to win, but not if the momentum keeps moving Rubio's way.
Pennsylvania Democratic primary
May 18, 2010
The combatants
Arlen Specter caused a rift in the Republican Party in 2004 by demanding that then-President George W. Bush and the Republican National Committee back him for a fifth term against GOP primary challenger, former Rep. Pat Toomey. Now, Specter, 79, has switched parties and giving the Democratic Party the same headaches he once inflicted on the GOP.
Liberal Democrats are rallying behind Rep. Joe Sestak, 57, who represents the Philadelpia suburbs. A retired Navy rear admiral, Sestak, is bucking a White House edict to leave Specter alone. While Specter was reviled by many Republicans for failing to tow the party line, Sestak is seeking to paint Specter as a Palin-loving right-winger.
The battlefield
While Barack Obama won almost 55 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania last year, recent polls show the president has a grim 40 percent approval rating in the commonwealth. Democratic activists decry Obama's support of Specter, but the White House lobbied hard for Specter's switch and promised him primary support as a precondition.
The intelligence
The Examiner Electoral Average shows Specter leading Sestak 39 percent to 23 percent, suggesting that it will be hard for the challenger to close the gap despite picking up several points in recent months. Specter switched parties to avoid a primary loss to Toomey, who is now cruising to the GOP nomination, but polls show that Specter might end up losing to Toomey in the general instead. The same surveys show Sestak performing about as well as Specter in a hypothetical matchup with Toomey.
Arkansas Democratic Primary
May 18, 2010
The combatants
Blanche Lincoln should be a shoo-in after two terms in the House, two terms in the Senate, and being elevated to the head of the powerful Agriculture Committee. But since 49-year-old Lincoln was first elected to Congress -- in 1992 the same year that fellow Arkie Bill Clinton was elected president -- the state has moved right.
Lincoln's vote on the Democratic health plan may determine her primary opponent. A "nay" vote might draw out liberal Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. A "yea" vote might bring a challenge from conservative state Senate leader Bob Johnson.
The battlefield
Polls show Arkansans strongly against the Democratic health plan, but liberal activists would be happy to help Halter punish Lincoln if she denies President Obama a health care victory.
The intelligence
There's not enough reliable polling to find a likely winner, but Lincoln's job approval rating, an abysmal 27 percent in one recent poll, offers hope to potential primary challengers and an eager pack of Republican hopefuls.
