Senate minority leader Harry Reid is the most vulnerable Democrat up for re-election in 2016, and may retire to duck a humiliating defeat, according to a new analysis of the 2016 race.

“We identified Reid as probably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in this Senate cycle,” said a "Crystal Ball" report from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

It’s also possible that he will retire, although his heavy fundraising and public comments suggest that he’s running again,” said the latest report from analyst Geoffrey Skelley. Recent reports suggest Reid is going for his sixth term.

The analysis found that of all senators ever to seek a sixth term, Reid’s ratings and margin of victory in past races puts him on the endangered list.

But it also notes that the Nevadan is among the best in pulling off last-minute victories.

“There are 71 other senators who have won at least five straight elections, but Reid’s record arguably makes him the greatest of the Senate survivors,” said the report.

In his last election, for example, he was down in polls against a very weak Republican, and pulled to a comfortable win. This time, however, he might be facing popular Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval at a time when Reid’s approval ratings are low.

The report also suggests a reason Reid might consider retirement: “Reid just suffered significant injuries in an exercising accident, and his wife and daughter have also had recent illnesses.”

Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at