Talk about burying the lede. In the very, very last paragraph of Politico's story on its new Morning Consult poll, you find this:
Voters also split evenly on an early read on the 2018 midterm elections: Forty percent would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, and 40 percent would vote for the Republican. One in 5 voters is undecided.
This just about knocked me over. Forget, for a moment, about the results pertaining to Trump, because he won't be on the ballot again anytime soon. After the travel ban, the failure on healthcare, and the seemingly endless parade of mini-controversies raised since his inauguration, you'd kind of expect more of a backlash against his party by now. So where is it?
Given the strong Democratic turnout in the various state and federal special elections since November, you would really expect Democrats to have a substantial lead. Historically, a tied generic ballot (at least when it gets clocked around election time) means a solid win for Republicans. Sometimes Republicans have won big even where they were a few points behind in generic ballot polls.
Maybe this poll is just a bit screwy. Then again, maybe all those special election races with stronger-than usual Democratic turnout really are just artifacts of low special election turnout and the exceptional enthusiasm of angry liberals.