The special Alabama Senate primary is at once the most exciting and the most boring spectacle in politics. Depending on who's keeping score, the contest between Judge Roy Moore and incumbent Sen. Luther Strange will be either blowout or barnburner, slaughter or slugfest.
New polling from Montgomery-based Southeast Research suggests the latter. With 19 days before Election Day, according to the poll, Strange is trailing Moore by 16 points: 52 to 36 percent.
While Moore has painted himself as the conservative champion, Strange has run as the establishment pick and an administration loyalist. Unsurprisingly, that's reflected in the voter break down. Self-identifying conservatives favor Moore over Strange, 58 to 32 percent, while moderates favor Strange over Moore, 49 to 39 percent.
What does all this mean going into Election Day? It means Strange looks like he's going to be whipped.
The enduring lesson of contemporary politics has been the unreliability of polling. And the errors that show up during regular elections when pollsters have months are only magnified during rushed special elections.
But even if all the Alabama polling has flaws, things are bleak for Strange. Three polls have Moore ahead by double digits. Two more polls also have Strange trailing but within striking distance. Unless they're all wrong, and unless something major happens between now and Election Day, it looks like Strange will lose.
Philip Wegmann is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.