Top academic economists say the Republican tax plan would not substantially boost economic growth but would add to the federal debt, according to a new survey released Tuesday.
Fifty-two percent of the economists surveyed by the University of Chicago's IGM Forum responded that the GOP tax plan would not substantially increase the size of the economy. Another 36 percent were uncertain. Only one, Stanford University's Darrell Duffie, said the plan is likely to increase the gross domestic product.
"Aside from the redistribution of wealth, hard to see this changing much," said the University of Chicago's Richard Thaler, the most recent winner of the Nobel Prize in economics.
All but one of the respondents said the plan would increase the federal debt, with the lone exception indicating that he was uncertain. The Trump administration has maintained that the tax cut, totaling $1.5 trillion over a decade, would increase economic growth enough to pay for itself.
The survey is not a comprehensive poll of academics, but rather a question posed to select prominent ones. The IGM Forum regularly asks the economists about different topics. In Tuesday's question, they were asked about a plan similar to the tax bill passed by the House last week and to the bill advanced by the Senate Finance Committee.