Peter Wehner is a Commentary Magazine columnist, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, and a former senior aide to President Ronald Reagan and to both Bush chief executives.

Earlier this week, Wehner assembled a parade of data-driven observations about the current and future state of American politics that ought to set on edge the teeth of every Republican office-holder, candidate, strategist, donor and, especially, voter.

To put it bluntly, according to Wehner, "Republicans, at least when it comes to presidential elections, have a winning message for an electorate that no longer exists."

Points to ponder

Wehner's assessment may strike readers quite differently the day after the 2016 presidential votes are counted, but for now, he puts forth a case that demands sustained, thoughtful analysis.

In that spirit then, consider these:

* "In the last two decades of Democratic dominance, 18 states and the District of Columbia have voted Democratic six out of six times. These currently have 242 electoral votes, which is quite close to the 270 needed to win the presidency.

"There are 13 states that have voted Republican in every election since 1992, but they total just 102 electoral votes. (Source: Jeffrey Bell)

* "Out of the last six presidential elections, four have gone to the Democratic nominee, at an average yield of 327 electoral votes to 210 for the Republican.

"During the preceding two decades, from 1968 to 1988, Republicans won five out of six elections, averaging 417 electoral votes to the Democrats’ 113.

"In three of those contests, the Democrats failed to muster even 50 electoral votes. (Source: Michael Gerson and Peter Wehner)

* "White voters, who traditionally and reliably favor the GOP, have gone from 89 percent of the electorate in 1976 to 72 percent in 2012. (This decline is partially an artifact of a change in the way the Census Bureau classifies Hispanics, who used to be counted among whites before being placed in a separate category.)

"Mitt Romney carried the white vote by 20 points. If the country’s demographic composition were still the same in 2012 as it was in 2000, he would now be president. If it were still the same as it was in 1992, he would have won in a rout. (Source: Michael Gerson and Peter Wehner)"

Where's the flaw?

To paraphrase Mark Twain, there are, of course, three kinds of liars — lies, damned lies and political demographics. Wehner's analysis won't be popular with more than a few on the Right.

That said, those who disagree with Wehner must respond with facts and logic rather than emotion and cliche.

On today's

Editorial: Obama should stop studying Keystone XL and approve it.

Watchdog/Mark Tapscott: Tea Party groups tell Congress IRS harassment continues.

Columnist/Philip Klein: By discouraging work, Obamacare is making U.S. fiscal problems worse.

Columnist/Ron Arnold: Watchdogging Obama's regulatory state.

Columnist/Byron York: The number of Obamacare signups is greatly inflated.

Law/Legal Newsline: A Florida plumber's personal injury lawsuit may soon go to trial in the epicenter of asbestos litigation.

PennAve/David M. Drucker: An interview with Sen. Tom Coburn.

PennAve/Susan Ferrechio: House GOP hits wall on immigration reform.

In other news

The New York Times: Russia claims U.S. is meddling "crudely" in Ukraine.

ABC News/The Note: The incredible shrinking GOP debt-ceiling demands.

The Washington Post: U.S. diplomat apologizes for profane remark about E.U. and Ukraine.

New York Daily News: SAC Capital Advisor portfolio manager guilty in largest-ever insider trading scam.

CBS News/Moneywatch: Why you may be getting a raise soon.

USA Today: New U.S. law links whistleblower protection to UN funding.

Righty Playbook

The Weekly Standard: An Obamacare report card.

The American Thinker: The Tea Party must learn to play tough with the GOP.

The Wall Street Journal Opinion Page: Fewer job benefits, more jobs.

Bonus must-read

The Federalist: Unemployment is freedom. Dependency is choice. Numbers lie.

Lefty Playbook

The Progressive: Greens urge Kerry to review "defective" Keystone study.

UTNE: Obama's hands are far from tied on climate.

The American Prospect: Pipeline or pipe bomb?

Bonus Must-Read Is the literary world elitist?

Blog Right

Powerline Blog: Cleta Mitchell is the most dangerous woman in America.

Hot Air: Liberal congresswoman gave the most painful speech ever.

Hugh Hewitt: Every House GOP member can be reached at 202-224-3121.

Blog Left

The Huffington Post: I am a member of the American "Used-to-Haves."

Talking Points Memo: GOP says immigration reform won't happen because Obama is "lawless."

America Blog: Russians admit they put spy cams in Olympic showers, bathrooms.