Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake believe that Congress won’t win a sequester showdown with President Obama. They explain, in three bullet points:

1. Regular people have no idea what the sequester is right now and, even once it kicks in, aren’t likely to pay all that close of attention to it unless they are directly affected by it.
2. Obama is popular with the American public
3. Congress is not.

All three bullet items are true. Unfortunately for Cillizza, Blake, and Obama, items two and three are also irrelevant. Obama may be popular with the American public writ large (even then Gallup only has him at 51 percent), but he is not popular in red states or red congressional districts. Americans may hate Congress, but they love their congressmen.

And since there are fewer swing districts than ever, Republican House members fear a primary from the right far more than Obama’s popularity.

The sequester will come March 1st, the Armageddon Obama is currently predicting won’t happen, and Republicans will be very well positioned for the March 27th continuing resolution showdown.