We’re three weeks into the 2020 race and is it too early to get a sense of the Democratic fields’ strengths and weaknesses? Of course it is. In November 2014 no one had any idea Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee, possibly including Donald Trump. Anything can happen!

But usually, “anything” doesn’t happen. Hillary Clinton was the front-runner in November of 2014 and she became the Democratic nominee in 2016. Mitt Romney was the front-runner in November 2010 and he became the nominee two years later. Early favorites who went on to win the nomination include George W. Bush, Bob Dole, Al Gore, and H.W. Bush. And even Obama—who was a longshot and definitively not the favorite—was making moves by this time in 2006 and officially declared as a candidate by February of 2007.