Syrian dictator Bashar Assad has a big problem. His currency is in free fall, and there’s little he can do to stop it.

Evidencing as much, Assad on Saturday increased the penalty for foreign currency trading. It will now involve years of hard labor. His security services are also escalating their repression of a growing protest movement over the Syrian pound’s collapsing value. Beyond the threats, however, Assad’s hands are tied. That’s because this crisis has four key sources largely outside of his control.