Though the full repeal of the ban on arms sales to Vietnam is largely symbolic, analysts said it could open the door for the U.S. to begin selling maritime surveillance equipment to the country.
President Obama announced in Hanoi that he would fully lift the embargo on selling military equipment to Vietnam, though a relaxation of the embargo about a year and a half ago already allowed the U.S. to sell Vietnam maritime security equipment.
Walter Lohman, the director of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, said the U.S. will most likely sell things like patrol boats, surveillance aircraft, communications equipment, radars and other technology that would allow them to provide for better security at sea because that would most benefit the U.S.
“We’re not trying to make friends by selling them weapons,” Lohman said.
The U.S. has an interest in Vietnam maintaining better security on the seas in the region, especially as China increases its operations in the region.
Specifically, Lohman said Vietnam has expressed an interest in purchasing Lockheed Martin’s P-3 Orion patrol aircraft, which are used to spot submarines.
Analysts from IHS Jane’s also said that the Vietnamese could be interested in Raytheon coastal radar systems, and that competition to upgrade the country’s communications and surveillance equipment will be “particularly fierce.”
On the list of things the U.S. likely won’t sell to Vietnam are things like small arms or tanks.
“Things that have nothing to do with where our interest overlap the most,” Lohman said. “Anything not associated with maritime security is not something we have an interest in selling them.”
Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman, said Monday morning that he has no information on what items could be sold to Vietnam.
“Obviously we’re watching as you are these announcements that are coming out of Vietnam, and are very interested in them, but I think we’re well away timewise of having anything specific to tell you about on that,” he said.
Lohman said it’s going to take a “while” for Vietnam to learn the U.S. foreign military sales process and overcome remaining human rights concerns, but that there is “significant potential” once sales are able to go through.
But Michael Kugelman, a senior associate for south and southeast Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Center, warned that the new fully-lifted embargo would likely not inspire a flood of sales since much of what the U.S. produces is too expensive for Vietnam to buy. He said military surveillance and coastal defense equipment may be “the sweet spot, it might be the area where the U.S. can provide the types of materials that Vietnam can actually afford.”
With many U.S. products out of its price range, Vietnam has already turned to Russia, a trend Kugelman said he expects to continue despite the lifted ban.
“I imagine that won’t change, that the Vietnamese will continue to look to Russia,” he said. “With Russia, Vietnam won’t face oversight and questions about its human rights record.”
Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement on Monday that the administration should withhold military sales to Vietnam until it improves upon its human rights record.
IHS Jane’s analysts also predicted Vietnam’s relatively small defense budget of about $1.6 billion in 2016 will prevent any large buys.
“But that’s now leverage lost with today’s action. The Obama administration’s ‘pivot to Asia’ should be about security ties, but also standing up for brave Vietnamese believers in democracy when they are under assault in Vietnam,” Royce said.
Jamie McIntyre contributed to this report.
