I WAS FORTUNATE last week in being able to gather round the dinner table in my London flat a group of economists, media folk, geopoliticians, and foreign policy types to review where the world is, and where it is going. Whereas the heads of state convened in Evian today are bound by the stilted scripts prepared by their sherpas, my dinner companions, protected by the Chatham House rules (that forbid naming names) always in force in my home, could be completely candid. The first thing we learned is that if you want an uncontested prediction of the course of the U.S. economy, don’t invite more than one economist. We had several. In my view the day was carried by the optimists, who say that we have learned from past errors how to respond to bursting bubbles. They predict that the American economy will be growing at an annual rate of a bit under 3 percent by year’s end, and at a still higher rate in 2004.

As these cheery economists see it, all the pieces are in place for such a recovery. Interest rates are already low, which should keep the housing market growing at the record pace of recent months. The decline in the dollar will stimulate the export-led sector of the manufacturing and service sectors, and ward off any deflationary tendencies. And now we have the president’s tax cut.