Voters who are betting a strong economy will reelect President Trump might be in for a rude awakening. Research shows that the bond has weakened between strong economic performance and incumbents winning. It has been partially replaced by party affiliation.

“Citizens view the world through a partisan lens,” said Ellen Key, associate professor of political science at Appalachian State University. She added via email that “there’s a certain segment of the population that doesn’t like the president regardless of how the economy is doing.”