WHEN FIGHTERS FROM THE RADICAL Islamic Courts Union (ICU) seized the Somali capital of Mogadishu on June 5, analysts were immediately concerned that the country could become a haven for terrorists. Since then, the ICU’s hold on the country has tightened. More alarming, the militia has come to more closely resemble al Qaeda’s previous sponsor, the Taliban, with each gain it makes.

After wresting control of Mogadishu from Somalia’s interim government, the ICU’s militias seized a number of towns. These gains have resulted in the Islamic militia controlling cities that stretch all the way to Somalia’s border with Ethiopia. More important, these gains have been strategic in nature. The ICU now enjoys great flexibility in moving its militias and supplies, and is on the verge of controlling the majority of Somalia. In contrast, the interim government is holed up in the south-central Somali city of Baidoa, and appears increasingly vulnerable.