Never in history have more people predicted a leading presidential candidate would quit the race, and never have more people been wrong. As Donald Trump wraps up his final days of frenzied campaigning, and voters go the polls, it’s worth noting how many times over the past two years there were people who said this day would never come.

First, of course, there was a near-consensus among the commentariat in the spring of 2015 that Trump, despite having hired a top operative in Iowa and having spent more time in that first-voting state than some high-profile candidates, would never actually run. The denials that Trump would get in the race continued almost to the moment, on June 18, 2015, that Trump formally announced his candidacy.