In this week’s newsletter, I talked about Donald Trump’s electoral prospects in the context to two other reasonably successful, non-traditional candidates: Jesse Ventura and Ross Perot. My basic point is that voters are more likely to support fringe candidates than the establishment often assumes. And that if Trump were to run as a third-party candidate with even half as much success as Perot, then the Republicans are likely to lose in 2016, no matter who the two major party nominees are.

(Seriously: Ross Perot got 20 million votes in 1992. Mitt Romney only got 61 million in 2012. If Trump were to run as a third-party pulling 10 million votes next year, it’s difficult to imagine how any Dem-GOP split works out for Republicans.)