On the heels of the latest New Hampshire 2024 primary survey showing how Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is overtaking former President Donald Trump, conservative pollster Rick Shaftan has done a deeper dive into the results to reveal what voters think about the top three GOP candidates.
The bottom line: DeSantis is the “future,” Trump “the past,” and former Vice President Mike Pence “a mixture of blah and mush.”
What’s more, with those three the dominant names in the 2024 Republican primary mix, all others are being elbowed to the side.
17/The messages that translate most into votes are the same ones that work for Trump. Voters are considering whether DeSantis is a more effective version of the Trump they liked and voted for.
— Rick Shaftan — Neighborhood Research and Media (@Shaftan) December 16, 2022
Shaftan has been polling in the early primary and caucus states and found that MAGA remains strong but its allegiance shifting to DeSantis, seen as Trump 2.0.
“Trump staying in is the best thing for DeSantis. It sucks up all the energy from anyone else who might want to run. People are approaching it as if it is everyone versus Trump. But that is wrong. It’s now everyone versus DeSantis,” he told Secrets.
“The problem is that DeSantis has co-opted so much of the Trump base, there’s no room for anyone else to ‘out-Trump’ DeSantis. This is the most brilliant positioning I’ve ever seen. I don’t know if it is intentional or not, but it’s incredible,” he added.
In a 31-point Twitter thread, Shaftan revealed what voters think of the candidates and shared the mood with voters on the Trump spectrum.
20/Now Mike Pence…a sad case…
— Rick Shaftan — Neighborhood Research and Media (@Shaftan) December 16, 2022
23/A mixture of blah and mush…
— Rick Shaftan — Neighborhood Research and Media (@Shaftan) December 16, 2022
On the pro-Trump side, voters see a strong and accomplished politician. On the negative side, voters see a big mouth.
With DeSantis, voters see many of the same traits, but his newness is his advantage. “The messages that translate most into votes are the same ones that work for Trump. Voters are considering whether DeSantis is a more effective version of the Trump they liked and voted for,” said the pollster.
Then there is Pence, “a sad case,” said Shaftan, adding, “he will never be president.”
31/And one last point to reinforce: Trump supporters stand with him personally, but pro-Trump DeSantis voters like his record, but see him as the past, and DeSantis as the future.
This contrast is deadly for Trump.
— Rick Shaftan — Neighborhood Research and Media (@Shaftan) December 16, 2022
His final point in the Twitter thread: “Trump supporters stand with him personally, but pro-Trump DeSantis voters like his record, but see him as the past, and DeSantis as the future. This contrast is deadly for Trump.”