There’s a slim opportunity for President Trump to score a win in his home state, according to one New York Republican, but most political veterans think it’s very unlikely.
“The electoral math in New York is pretty simple,” said Gavin Wax, President of the New York Young Republican Club, who said he thought it was possible Trump reach the mid-40s. “If you get over 33% of New York City as Republican, you could carry the state as a whole. That’s held true the last two, three decades, and it still holds true, especially upstate and Long Island,” places that have solidified in terms of being more Republican in their party registration and their voter turnout.
“So I don’t think it’s unheard of,” he continued. “I think crazier things have happened. People need to realize it is a big state, and if you just win on the margins and you run it up in the city like [Trump 2016] did in Pennsylvania … there’s a downstream effect across the state where you can flip the whole state.”
“Not a chance in hell,” said one New York strategist who requested anonymity to speak frankly. “You cannot win New York statewide without going into Manhattan.”
Trump, Wax said, “flipped Pennsylvania because he was able to push the numbers up in Philly, in places like South Philly, with the white ethnic vote, which still exists in New York City as well.”
Trump Victory, the joint Republican Party and Trump campaign effort, have headquarters and staff in eight New York districts, and there is talk of extending this across the state, according to details provided by the New York Republican Party. They also have a statewide calling program in place.
Wax cited an internal poll that showed Trump down by 5 percentage points. “I don’t think that’s unrealistic,” he said. “Biden’s campaign would be foolish to completely ignore stuff like this.”
“It’s clear that [the race] will be a lot tighter this year, no matter which way you cut it,” Wax said.
New York has not voted for a Republican president since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Another Republican called Trump’s hope to win his home state a “pipe dream at best.”
“The campaign is sending no resources into New York, period,” this person said. “We can’t even get the campaign to send us yard signs.”
“They’ve written off New York for swing states,” he added. “It’s not a Trump thing — that would be any Republican running for president right now. That would be the game plan.”
As for ground game, “no sign of it,” said another. “We can’t even get yard signs” from the Trump campaign, this person said.
“A Republican cannot win in New York statewide without getting greater than 30% in New York City,” said an operative. “He’s not doing that.”
“The electoral map is just way too hard,” one person said. “A Republican hasn’t won a New York statewide race since Governor Pataki in 2002.”
In an interview with Fox News that aired Monday, Trump said, “I’m going to give New York a very good shot because the same people that voted against me like me now.”
And in August, he told the New York Post that “we’re putting New York in play.”
One operative speculated that Trump may be trying to throw Biden off.
“I think there are some places where the president has maybe some stronger showing,” and that the turmoil in New York City may open more New Yorkers to the possibility of voting for him, this operative said. “And I wouldn’t keep it past him that it’s a move to try to motivate the New York City donor class, as well.”
He added: “But I can tell you we’re starting to see polling come in from different districts, whether those be state legislative districts or congressional districts all over the state, and I can tell you that those numbers don’t look anywhere near where he would need to be upstate and other places in the suburbs to even think to compete here.”
Veteran Republican consultant Jessica Proud said that while it was unlikely Trump would win New York, “there are many areas across the state where he will win and do well, and help down ballot.”
She said that the last time Trump was on the ballot, in 2016, was the first presidential year since the 1980s that Republicans did not lose state Senate or assembly seats.
“President Trump is working to make America great for all Americans, and his successful first term certainly gives New Yorkers a multitude of reasons to vote for him this November,” said Samantha Zagar, deputy national press secretary for Trump 2020. “Our campaign is always looking to expand the electoral map, and we won’t rule out any state ahead of this year’s election.”
Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien told reporters Tuesday that the campaign will “continue to monitor data and base our decision making accordingly.”
