California is often seen as the first to launch innovative, progressive laws, but the 2022 midterm elections could turn out to be a reckoning if the voter turnout keeps dwindling for Democrats.
As of Thursday, the number of Democratic early votes is down 65% compared to last year, when Gov. Gavin Newsom faced a recall, said GOP Senate candidate Mark Meuser, quoting figures from the California Republican Party.
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Republican turnout is down 50%, but a greater majority of that party favor voting in person than the Democrats. Sixty-two percent say absentee voting should only be done if someone has a valid reason for not getting to the polls, compared to 16% of Democrats, the Pew Research Center found.
“This is showing that this is going to be one of the lowest turnouts in California history, similar to 2014 when Jerry Brown was reelected,” Meuser said. “There has been a media blackout on the governor’s and U.S. Senate race — people aren’t getting information.”
Against this backdrop, the Washington Examiner has prepared a voting guide for the hottest races and propositions on Nov. 8.
Governor
Newsom is a household name, synonymous with the yearlong COVID-19 shutdown. He also survived a recall over voter anger related to closed schools and businesses during the pandemic.
There is a second person in this race: Republican Brian Dahle, a former assemblyman. He has committed to cutting red tape, reducing the cost of living, and improving quality of life issues such as water, infrastructure, and homelessness.
U.S. Senate
Democratic incumbent Alex Padilla was appointed to fill Vice President Kamala Harris’s seat in 2021. He is a former Los Angeles City Councilman and California secretary of state. During his tenure, he added legal protections to public lands and assisted shorelines with erosion control.
Republican Mark Meuser, a constitutional rights attorney, was the runner-up in the state’s jungle primary. He supports ending special interest control of government and says he wants a return to where people have a voice instead of Big Tech, Big Business, and Big Pharma.
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U.S. House
DISTRICT 3
This is a race where a Republican outperformed a Democrat, albeit by one percentage point. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley has been a high-profile detractor of Newsom and even wrote a book, “Recall Newsom.” He is a staunch conservative who vilifies the Left over high gas prices, dwindling standards of living, and illegal immigration. Navy surgeon Kermit Jones wants to bring a centrist approach to his party and hopes his medical background will give him an edge in combating the high cost of healthcare and address issues such as price gouging and lack of quality care.
DISTRICT 13
This is a newly drawn district viewed as a toss-up with no incumbent running. It’s a heavily Hispanic farming area where Democrats outnumber Republicans, but low voter turnout could give conservatives an edge. Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray is running against almond farmer John Duarte, who has battled the state over water rights and land usage.
DISTRICT 22
Incumbent David Valadao is the only California Republican who voted to impeach Trump over the Jan. 6 insurrection but still has the support of GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy. He represents a farming district that is 43% Democrat. The race against centrist Democratic farmer Rudy Salas is considered a toss-up even though Salas outperformed in the primary.
DISTRICT 45
Republican freshman Rep. Michelle Steel is hoping to hang on to her seat in Orange County, which has been increasingly turning blue. Both Steel and challenger Jay Chen are Asian Americans appealing to an electorate that is becoming increasingly diverse. The race is viewed as leaning Republican even though the number of Democrat-registered voters is 5% higher.
DISTRICT 47
Rep. Katie Porter’s star has been rising in Democratic circles when she started taking on a bigger role in Congressional hearings against special interests. She represents the coastal region of Orange County, which used to be an intensely red zone. Challenger Scott Baugh is a longtime Republican Party leader, serving both as an assemblyman and county chairman. His longtime ties to the county could make this a close race.
Propositions
Every election cycle, voters have a chance to pass new laws, some of them are quirky, while others deal with substantial issues. This time is no exception.
PROP. 26 AND 27
Sports betting. Prop. 26 would allow in-person sports wagers at horse racing tracks and in casinos on tribal land. Prop. 27 lets residents make bets through approved online sportsbooks.
PROP. 29
Regulation of kidney dialysis treatment centers. The state has about 650 dialysis clinics, many of which are privately operated. This would require a doctor, practitioner, or physician assistant on-site during treatment. Clinics would also have to report infection information.
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PROP. 30
Tax on high earners to fund a transition to electric vehicles. Residents who make more than $2 million a year would pay a 1.75% tax to subsidize electric vehicle purchases, construct additional charging stations, and fund wildfire prevention efforts.
PROP. 31
Outlawing in-person flavored tobacco sales. If the law passes, it would join a list of other anti-tobacco laws passed in the Golden State, which was the first to outlaw smoking in restaurants in 1995.
