The Democrats are blitzing a Republican Georgia House district, hoping diminished enthusiasm for President Trump after the party’s failure to repeal Obamacare fuels an upset in an April 18 special election.
The Democratic candidate, former congressional aide Jon Ossoff, 30, shouldn’t have a chance in the suburban Atlanta 6th district held for a dozen years by former GOP Rep. Tom Price, who vacated the office to become Health and Human Services Secretary.
But Ossoff has raised nearly $3 million that he has invested in television and radio advertising so far, more than all of his Republican opponents combined, according to media buying sources.
His campaign is being bolstered by a grassroots operation financed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — unmatched in funding so far by the GOP. The DCCC has nine field staff in the district, directing scores of volunteers as they knock on doors every day leading up to Election Day.
Some Republican insiders are getting nervous.
They worry about Republican complacency, and harbor concerns that GOP voters might see little value in turning out for a special election three weeks after the party bailed on its promise to replace former President Barack Obama’s health care law.
“You need a perfect storm for Ossoff to get to 51 percent,” said a Republican operative, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “Well, guess what? You’re sailing right into a perfect storm.”
The April 18 election is a “jungle primary.” The top two finishers will advance to a runoff, regardless of their political affiliation, unless the winner garners 51 percent.
Ossoff’s best chance is to win is to win round one outright. Democrats and Republicans agree that it’s a steep climb. But they aren’t dismissing his chances out of hand.
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the district in November in by just 1 percentage point. Plus, the field of Republican candidates is so large, they risk dividing up the vote and clearing a path for Ossoff.
Trump’s job approval numbers in the district improved somewhat since November. But they have taken a hit in recently, as the White House and Congressional Republicans struggled with health care, say Democratic and Republican insiders who have viewed private polling.
Officially, the Republican Party isn’t concerned, although GOP officials concede that Democratic energy in the district is substantial. The National Republican Congressional Committee, the counterpart to the DCCC, isn’t bothering to match its rival’s field operation.
The NRCC was not advertising in the race, either, as of Tuesday.
“What [Democrats] fail to realize is, that although the energy around [Ossoff] is real, he will fall short in the runoff due to his radical liberal agenda that is 100 percent out of step with the majority of the district as it stands,” NRCC spokeswoman Maddie Anderson said.
For Democrats, the contest is a major test for whether it can transform the uptick in liberal activism since Trump was elected into electoral victories.
The Georgia 6 seat isn’t a swing district, so losing wouldn’t necessarily indicate anything about the 2018 midterms, in which Democrats are likely to target nearly two-dozen GOP-held districts won by Clinton.
But the race could reveal a lot about how worried Republicans in Congress should be about Trump’s low approval ratings nationally — and whether the health care debacle stands to damage the party politically in the months ahead.
The DCCC has been conducting a series of focus groups of voters across the spectrum in the district, hoping to take away lessons for 2018 regardless of how the special election turns out.
“The presidential [vote margin] in Georgia’s 6th, combined with intense local grassroots energy, are reasons for optimism in what has always been a Republican-held district,” DCCC spokeswoman Meredith Kelly said.
Ossoff is a political novice without much of a record. He previously worked as a national security staffer for Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga.
His campaign has attracted money from Democrats all over the country, as well as assistance from Hollywood stars who have shown up in the district to help him get out the vote.
The top Republicans mentioned in the contest are Karen Handel, the former Georgia secretary of state and a 2014 Senate candidate; Bob Gray, a former local councilman running as the Trump candidate; and former state Sen. Dan Moody.
