POLLS RELEASED LAST WEEK have Gov. Gray Davis beating the pants off Bill Simon with a double-digit lead in the race for the California governorship. But, believe it or not, a select few still believe Simon has a chance. What are they thinking?

(1) Davis’s lead isn’t as strong as it looks. At this point in the race incumbent Davis should be holding at least a majority of likely voters. But according to the Los Angeles Times, Davis is polling at 45 percent of likely voters against Simon’s 36 percent, and the Public Policy Institute of California says the figures are closer to 41 percent versus 31 percent. After pouring about $50 million into his campaign, mostly on anti-Simon ads, Davis has been unable to consistently gain even half of likely voters in polls, which signals that something odd is going on. And that something might turn out to be in Simon’s favor.