Obama’s State of the Union Address and his outreach to Republicans has led to a slight bump in his job approval rating. Obama is at 49 percent in the latest Rasmussen Reports daily survey. In Gallup Daily Tracking, Obama is now once again above 50 percent.

This is one reason Republicans should heed Stuart Rothenberg’s warning not to become overconfident (link is subscribers only). Obviously, no one has any idea how long the bump will last. Still, when you study midterm elections, the rule tends to be that approval rating reigns supreme. In 1982, 1994, and 2006, the president’s approval rating was in the low forties. The 1982 election saw major Democratic gains; 1994 and 2006 saw the out-party win Congress. For the 2010 Republicans to do the same — something that prevailing wisdom now considers a possibility — Obama’s job approval would have to fall farther than it already has.