The political betting market, which more accurately called the 2020 election than pollsters, is predicting that former President Donald Trump will beat President Joe Biden in 2024 — if Biden makes it that far.
New odds just posted by the betting aggregation site Gambling.com have Trump winning, at 3-1, over Biden, who has fallen to 4-1. Vice President Kamala Harris, seen as the most likely successor to her boss, has dipped to 6-1.
The analysis site said that Biden’s “historically low” approval rating, inflation, the debate over Democratic moves to block parents from classrooms, and continued COVID-19 issues have been unkind to the new administration, and it is having an impact.
“He is now the least likeliest incumbent in history to win a second term,” said the analysis shared with Secrets.
Analyst Joe Short of Gambling.com said that even Biden’s future in the office is in doubt among gamblers.
“Some are doubting whether or not he will complete his first four years as president. And things could get even worse for Biden before they get better as the U.S. political machine ramps up for next year’s midterms,” he said.
Biden has been on a downward polling spiral ever since he ordered a hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan. During that move, five military officials were killed in a suicide attack, and the president’s plan left hundreds of Americans behind.
Biden hoped that he would get a bounce from his signing of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, but the public is more worried about inflation than getting a bridge in 10 years.
After the 2020 election, Forbes reported that betting sites did better in predicting Biden’s margin of victory than pollsters. In fact, they got 49 of 50 states correct and were off by just four Electoral Votes compared to 44 in many polls.
