Tied in the polls, tied in the swing states, tied in the number of gaffes they seem to be making, Obama and Romney seem neck and neck lately. They may remain so until quite late in the season — say, Nov. 5, 2012.

On the other hand, the trends and the upcoming events seem to favor Mitt Romney, who has more money to spend, more room to maneuver, and more empty space to fill out. Obama has cash now, but he is burning it quickly and in September will be at a large disadvantage. The economy won’t improve in the near future. And Romney’s convention will probably help him, whereas Obama’s most surely will not.