President Trump and likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden are virtually tied in Iowa, according to a new poll, a sharp turnaround from the 2016 race when the Republican nominee won by 9 percentage points.
Trump earns 48% among Iowa voters, giving him a slight lead over Biden’s 46% in a poll released by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning polling firm based in North Carolina. Among older voters, Biden, the former two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator, leads Trump by 52% over the president’s 44%.
After years as a general election battleground, Iowa in 2016 moved sharply in Republicans’ direction. It has not generally been included as lists of battleground states for the 2020 contest, but polling suggests the race could be considerably closer than expected.
Iowa voters are split over government response to the coronavirus pandemic, including Trump’s recent executive order to require meatpacking plants in Iowa to remain open despite pushback from local officials. Over 50% of respondents said they believed the plants should remain closed until local health officials deem it safe.
Voters also overwhelmingly supported expanded absentee ballots amid the pandemic, with 70% saying every registered voter should be mailed an absentee ballot compared with 22% who said they should not. The response shows a difference in Trump’s previous criticism of mail-in voting, which the president called a recipe for fraud.
Iowa’s Senate race also narrowed, with Republican incumbent Joni Ernst holding only a 1-point lead over Democratic contender Theresa Greenfield. Ernst received 43% of support compared to Greenfield’s 42%. In December, Ernst held a 6-point lead. Iowa to date has not been a top-tier Senate race, but Democrats are now keeping a closer eye on the contest.
Public Policy Polling researchers surveyed 1,222 registered Iowa voters via landline calls and text lines between April 30 and May 1. Their findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8%.
