As we begin Election Day, the Democrats not only appear poised to lose between 60 and 75 House seats (I’ll defer to Jay Cost for the exact number), but they appear to have a roughly 50-50 chance of losing control of the Senate as well. To be sure, this is not what most people are saying, and it’s not what the polls — on their surface — are showing.  But the Senate polls appear to be under-sampling independents and over-sampling Democrats — and thereby understating the Republican Senate candidates’ likelihood of victory.

Without a doubt, it’s amazing that the Senate is in play — given that the Democrats can hold onto it by simply going 10-27 (27 percent) in the 37 Senate races that are on the board. But it remains to be seen whether they can post that winning percentage or whether the Republicans can post the 76-percent winning percentage (28-9) that, in combination with their expected wins in the House, would give them control of both congressional chambers.