Bill Roggio has up his own analysis of the situation:
The suspicion is the Islamic Republic of Iran is behind supplying al-Qaeda with the needed weapons, training and logistical support to supply and field a successful anti-aircraft force, much as the United States provided the mujahideen with Stingers in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
The United States and Iran have escalated the war in the shadows in Iran. After the United States raided Iranian ‘diplotmatic missions’ in Baghdad and Irbil, Iran is strongly believed to have conducted an attack on the provincial center in Karbal, which resulted in the death and kidnapping of five U.S. soldiers. An Iranian ‘diplomat’ was kidnapped off the streets of Baghdad today, and Iran is blaming the U.S.
During the Baghdad and Irbil raids, the U.S. detained seven members of Iran’s Qods Force (Iranian special forces) and captured documentation which proved Iran was supporting both the Sunni and Shia insurgent and death squads, as well as Al_Qaeda and Ansar al-Sunnah. Mines, which are killing U.S. troops, have been traced back directly to Iran, while weapons shipments have been interdicted while transiting the border.
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