The Republican National Committee is ratcheting up its “Stop Hillary” campaign, planning a flurry of political hits on presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to accompany her first major speech since announcing for president in April.
Clinton on Saturday will deliver a speech from Roosevelt Island in New York that her campaign is promoting as the former secretary of state’s official 2016 launch event. The site is named for President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the Democratic icon who was first elected in 1932 and was responsible for the creation of Social Security (FDR died in office during his fourth term.)
The RNC plans an aggressive response on traditional and social media, and on the ground in New York and in the early primary states where Clinton has spent the bulk of her time campaigning since kicking off her second presidential bid in mid April. This effort is part of the GOP’s plan to offer public opposition to Clinton while the party’s crowded field of presidential contenders focuses on themselves in their battle for the 2016 nomination. According to information shared with the Washington Examiner, the party’s activities include:
— New web ad pushed nationwide with higher emphasis placed on targeting IA, SC, NH and NV
— Statements/Op-eds
— Releasing Hillary oppo book
— Bracketing Hillary’s events in NYC, IA, SC, NH, NV.
— New gimmicks will be delivered to news outlets
— Surrogates booked on radio/TV.
— Staff on the ground for her state visits.
Additionally, the RNC commissioned a poll of independent voters that it claims proves Clinton’s vulnerability with independents in 10 battlegrounds states, most of which the GOP has not won in a presidential race since at least 2004, if that. The states polled included Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. Arizona is the only state in the group that is solid red.
Among the poll’s findings:
Hillary Clinton is clearly vulnerable and already has a net unfavorable rating with these independents.
• Clinton’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 44:49 and she trails the generic Republican candidate 40%-36% in these key battleground states.
Hillary Clinton’s supposed superior strength with women is a myth with these battleground state Independent women.
• Clinton’s favorable to unfavorable ratio with these Independent women is barely a net favorable (49:43) and she only leads the generic Republican by 3-points among them. Conversely, she trails among battleground state Independent men by 11-points (45%-34%) and her favorable to unfavorable ratio is an abysmal 39:56.
• The Party, its candidates and its surrogates need to be very careful in their tone and demeanor towards Hillary Clinton to ensure she isn’t able to turn the gender gap back in her favor.
The most significant driving factor to Hillary Clinton’s perceptual issues is a question of trust.
• Throughout the data, this was the most unprompted hesitation voters gave and is the attribute that she scored the lowest on. This is all before an attack ad has run this cycle.
• Messages tested dealing with her email scandal and the influence peddling of her brothers underscore her untrustworthiness, but were not in the top tier overall because this perception is already established and doesn’t move Independents as much as other issues.
Hillary Clinton’s own personal problems are only further magnified by President Obama’s poor ratings. However, this shouldn’t be a race about the incumbent President.
• President Obama has a net unfavorable rating with these battleground independents (45:50) and his job approval is a similar 43% approve, 52% disapprove. This is problematic for Clinton’s candidacy as her favorable to unfavorable ratio is only 21:74 among those who disapprove of the job the President is doing.
The survey was conducted by American Viewpoint May 3-7, 2015, using “mix-mode” interviews: 600 via land line telephone, 60 via cellphone, 300 via the Internet. The margin of error was 2.5 percentage points.
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.
