The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is over two weeks old, yet we are still struggling to determine why it happened and what its effects will be. This hasn’t stopped opportunists from demanding action now to prevent something like it happening again. Meanwhile, another set of opportunists condemns President Obama for his slow reaction. Given this charged atmosphere, we need to take stock of what we know—and don’t know—and consider what an ill-considered reaction would entail.

First, we need to keep at the event in proper perspective. As Matt Ridley points out, oil spills are currently at historically low levels.  Even at the alarming rate of 5,000 barrels a day released into the sea, the spill is unlikely to be the worst spill ever recorded in the Gulf. Moreover, Mother Nature herself pours about 3,000 barrels of oil into the waters off the United States each and every day, in a process known as natural seepage. That will be cold comfort to Gulf state residents, but we should be grateful that modern drilling methods have actually significantly reduced the amount of oil spilled, not increased it. The Deepwater Horizon accident is a calamity, indeed, but of an increasingly rare kind.